Uncertainty Ahead If The U.K. Votes To Leave The E.U.
On Thursday 23rd June, the U.K. will vote in a referendum to decide whether or not to remain in the European Union.
A pro-leave outcome would send shock-waves through the U.K. and internationally.
Political Change
David Cameron and George Osborne have tied themselves to the ‘remain’ campaign, should the public vote against them, their authorities will be severely weakened. Cameron could step aside immediately, in the midst of economic turmoil or stay and honour the decision of the people. The result will mean a shifting of power towards the ‘leave’ campaigners, notably Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.
Rival Pictures Of ‘Brexit’ Painted By Campaigners
Osborne claims the timescale for exiting is strict and that he will immediately activate article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, setting in motion a negotiation to be completed within two years. Vote Leave campaign director, Dominic Cumming says this is “mad and like putting a gun into your mouth and pulling the trigger”.
Pressure from the E.U. makes triggering article 50 highly likely by the autumn. One of its creators, former Liberal Democrat M.E.P. Andrew Duff claims “the clause puts most of the cards in the hands of those that stay in.”
The E.U.’s Reaction
An E.U. official stated that “it will be imperative to prevent the Brexit contagion gripping other countries”. This could see the major powers within the E.U. push to make sure seceders are seen to be the losers in negotiations. Leave campaigners believe however that over the summer the E.U. will come to consider the value the U.K. brings to the union.
So What Will Happen?
Huge issues such as the U.K.’s membership of the single market and the free movement of E.U. citizens will become bargaining chips between large institutions with the outcomes dependent on individuals fighting with their own agendas.
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